WiseGold Weekly Pulse | March 13, 2026
Coverage Period: March 06, 2026 (00:00:00 EST) to March 13, 2026 (11:00:00 EST)
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At a Glance: Key Market Levels (Week Ending March 13, 2026)
Macro & Monetary Policy Overview
The week of March 7–13, 2026, was defined by a single, overarching force: the escalating US-Israeli military conflict with Iran. The conflict, which began in late February, has rapidly reshaped the global macroeconomic landscape, introducing a substantial “war premium” into energy markets and triggering a classic stagflationary impulse, rising inflation expectations colliding with deteriorating growth signals [1][2].
The Federal Reserve finds itself in an acutely uncomfortable position. Prior to the geopolitical shock, markets were anticipating a cleaner dovish repricing following a series of weak labor market prints. Instead, the Iran conflict has prevented that repricing from materializing. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% at the March 17–18 FOMC meeting [2]. Swaps markets have materially repriced the easing path, now pricing in only 35–50 basis points of total 2026 easing, down from approximately 60 basis points a week earlier [2]. Some market participants have pushed the first cut as far out as Q2 2027.
The key analytical question, as articulated by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, is whether the oil shock proves transitory or persistent. He explicitly warned against a “transitory 2.0” scenario, the same analytical error that led the Fed to underestimate the 2021–2022 inflation surge [2]. Morgan Stanley estimates that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices adds 30–40 basis points to year-over-year inflation, and with Brent crude touching $100 per barrel, the risk of headline PCE running at or above 3.0% through 2026 is no longer hypothetical [2]. September crude futures, however, traded near $73 per barrel at week’s end, suggesting the market expects the shock to fade, a view that creates significant two-way risk [2].
In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) faces structurally similar but institutionally distinct challenges. Unchanged policy remains the base case, but recent comments from ECB officials have reinforced the sense that a rate hike is conceivable if higher energy pricing is maintained and the inflation outlook shifts to a more meaningful overshoot above 2.5% [3]. The ECB has already returned rates to neutral, which may make it harder to stand pat than it would be for the Fed, which retains more policy room [3]. The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to defer any shift in thinking to April, with officials wary of sticky household inflation expectations and the risk of a structural shift in price-setting behavior [3].
Economic Data & Indicators
The economic data released this week painted a starkly bifurcated picture: a labor market that is clearly cooling, a services sector that remains resilient, and an inflation profile that is re-accelerating on energy.
Inflation
The February 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released March 11, showed headline inflation rising 0.4% month-over-month, driven primarily by a 3.6% surge in the energy index [4]. Over the trailing 12 months, the all-items index increased 3.2% [4]. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also rose 0.4% in February and 3.8% year-over-year, with the shelter index remaining the dominant contributor to core pressure, rising 0.4% in the month [4]. The data reinforces the Fed’s dilemma: even before the full pass-through of the oil shock, core inflation was running well above target.
Employment
The labor market delivered the week’s most jarring data point. The February payrolls report showed a net loss of 92,000 jobs, compared to a consensus expectation of a gain of 55,000, a miss of nearly 150,000 [2]. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and prior months were revised lower by a combined 69,000 [2]. The labor market has now shed jobs in five of the past nine months [2]. The JOLTS report for January 2026, released Friday, March 13, showed job openings little changed at 6.9 million, with the job openings rate at 4.2% [5]. Hires and total separations were also little changed at 5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively, and the quits rate held at 2.0%, a level consistent with a labor market that is cooling but not collapsing [5].
Business Activity
Against the backdrop of labor market weakness, the ISM Services PMI for February 2026 registered a surprisingly strong 56.1%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from January’s 53.8% and the highest reading since July 2022 [6]. The Business Activity Index accelerated to 59.9%, the New Orders Index rose to 58.6%, and the Employment Index expanded for the third consecutive month, reaching 51.8% [6]. The resilience of the services sector complicates the narrative of a slowing economy and gives the Fed additional reason to hold.
Rates, Yield Curve & Foreign Exchange
US Treasury Yield Curve
The US Treasury yield curve experienced notable steepening this week, reflecting both the repricing of Fed policy expectations and the expansion of term premia associated with elevated inflation uncertainty. As of March 12, 2026, the curve showed a brief dip around the 1-year sector before rising through intermediate and longer maturities [7].
The 10-Year vs. 2-Year spread stood at +52 basis points, a positive and widening differential that reflects the market’s view that near-term rates will remain anchored by the Fed hold while longer-term inflation expectations drift higher [7]. The 10-Year vs. 3-Month spread was +57 basis points [7]. The positive term spreads and firmer long-end yields align with an environment of elevated inflation expectations and expanding term premia, rather than a recession signal.
Foreign Exchange
The US Dollar Index (DXY) broke above the psychologically significant 100 level for the first time in 2026, marking a second consecutive weekly gain as the Iran conflict drove investors toward safe-haven assets [8]. The euro and yen fell to multi-month lows against the dollar [8]. The WSJ Dollar Index rose 0.45% to 96.28 on Thursday alone [8]. Dollar strength has been a significant headwind for gold and other commodities priced in USD, as it raises the effective cost for non-dollar buyers.
Energy & Commodities
Crude Oil
The energy market was the week’s epicenter of volatility. Brent crude oil touched $100 per barrel on Thursday, March 12, as Iran vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed [9]. Front-month WTI crude futures settled up 9.7% on Thursday alone, with Brent up 9.2% on the day [9]. The Strait of Hormuz is the transit point for approximately 20% of global oil supply, and its effective closure represents a supply disruption with no immediate substitute [10]. Macquarie has flagged the possibility of crude prices rising to $150 per barrel or above if the closure is sustained [9]. Goldman Sachs raised its average Brent forecast for Q4 2026 to $71 per barrel, though near-term spot prices remain well above that level [9].
The week was characterized by extreme intraday volatility, Brent swung in a range of approximately $38 during the week, described by Bloomberg as the widest weekly range ever recorded [9]. Mixed signals from the Trump administration regarding the duration of the conflict drove sharp reversals, with stocks and oil staging a significant intraday recovery on Monday after the President hinted the war could be over soon [9].
Natural Gas
The conflict has also dramatically disrupted global liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets. Qatar, which accounts for approximately one-fifth of global LNG supply, halted production amid Iranian drone attacks [10]. This disruption has led to a doubling of European and Asian natural gas prices [10]. US natural gas prices have been more muted, reflecting domestic supply and demand dynamics and export constraints, but the longer-term trajectory for US energy prices was already elevated before the conflict began, driven by the Trump administration’s energy policy direction [10].
Precious Metals Complex
Gold
Gold prices headed for a second consecutive weekly loss, with spot gold trading in the $5,084–$5,120 per ounce range on Friday morning [11][12]. April gold futures opened at $5,084, down 0.8% from Thursday’s close of $5,125.80 [11]. The metal’s inability to rally in the face of a genuine geopolitical crisis reflects the competing forces at work: while gold benefits from safe-haven demand and inflation hedging, the surge in oil prices has simultaneously strengthened the US dollar and caused markets to dial back expectations for Fed rate cuts , both of which are structural headwinds for gold [12].
The counterintuitive behavior of gold during this conflict is a recurring theme in market commentary this week. Gold’s traditional role as a safe-haven asset is being partially displaced by the US dollar, which is absorbing a disproportionate share of safe-haven flows [12]. Furthermore, the inflationary impact of the oil shock is raising real interest rate expectations at the margin, reducing the relative attractiveness of a non-yielding asset [12].
Despite the near-term weakness, the structural backdrop for gold remains compelling. Gold has recorded seven consecutive monthly gains, its longest streak since 1973, driven by central bank reserve diversification and safe-haven capital flows [13]. Central bank accumulation remains structurally supportive, with China recording its 15th consecutive month of gold purchases as of January 2026, bringing the metal to approximately 10% of total foreign reserves [13]. New sovereign buyers, including Malaysia (its first purchase since 2018) and South Korea (resuming purchases after more than a decade), have entered the market, broadening the demand base [13]. Spot gold reached approximately $5,400 per ounce at its recent peak as both the monetary and geopolitical demand narratives took hold simultaneously [13].
Silver
Silver spot prices traded in the $83–$85 per ounce range, facing similar headwinds to gold from dollar strength and shifting rate expectations [14]. The gold/silver ratio stood at approximately 60.7, having widened slightly during the week as silver underperformed gold on a relative basis [14]. Silver’s dual role as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity creates additional sensitivity to growth concerns.
Platinum
Platinum traded near $2,070 per ounce, softer on the week amid broad dollar strength [14]. Platinum’s demand profile remains tied to both automotive catalytic converters and emerging hydrogen economy applications, providing a more complex fundamental backdrop than gold or silver.
Palladium
Palladium fell to approximately $1,612 per troy ounce on March 13, down 2.15% on the day and 8.80% over the prior month [15]. The metal continues to face structural headwinds from the automotive industry’s accelerating transition toward battery electric vehicles, which do not require palladium for catalytic converters. This secular demand shift has weighed on palladium even as broader precious metals have benefited from geopolitical and monetary tailwinds.
WiseGold Capital Perspective
The week of March 7–13, 2026, crystallized a macro regime that will likely define asset allocation decisions for the remainder of the year: stagflation risk has returned as a credible scenario, not merely a tail risk. The combination of a deteriorating labor market, re-accelerating headline inflation driven by energy, and a geopolitical shock that shows no clear resolution timeline creates a genuinely difficult environment for both equities and fixed income.
For precious metals specifically, the near-term picture is complicated by the dollar’s dominance as the primary safe-haven vehicle in the current conflict. Gold’s failure to rally meaningfully despite $100 oil and a genuine shooting war in the Middle East is a data point that advisors should understand clearly: it reflects the market’s judgment that the Fed cannot cut rates in response to a supply-side inflation shock, which removes one of gold’s most reliable near-term catalysts.
However, the structural investment thesis for gold remains intact and, in several respects, has strengthened. The broadening of central bank reserve diversification, with new sovereign buyers entering the market, represents a persistent, long-duration demand base that is not sensitive to short-term price volatility. The 1970s analogy, cited by multiple strategists this week, is instructive: oil supply shocks that force central banks into a policy bind between controlling inflation and supporting growth have historically been among the most supportive environments for gold over a multi-year horizon, even if the initial price response is muted or negative.
For advisors managing client portfolios in the precious metals space, the current environment underscores the importance of distinguishing between near-term tactical positioning and long-term strategic allocation. The structural case for gold as a hedge against both monetary debasement and geopolitical fragmentation is not diminished by a week of price weakness driven by dollar strength. The question is one of time horizon and portfolio construction, not of the fundamental thesis.
Week Ahead: Key Events & Data Releases (March 16–20, 2026)
The March 17–18 FOMC meeting is the dominant event risk of the coming week. Chair Powell’s press conference will be closely scrutinized for any signal of how the Fed is weighing the competing pressures of a weakening labor market against re-accelerating energy-driven inflation. Any hint of a shift toward a more hawkish stance, or any acknowledgment that rate cuts are being pushed further out, could provide additional headwinds for gold in the near term. Conversely, any dovish signal or acknowledgment of growth risks could provide a catalyst for a gold recovery.
References
[1] World Economic Forum. “The global price tag of war in the Middle East.” March 2026.
[2] CRE Finance Council. “Economy, the Fed, and Rates…” March 10, 2026. [
3] MUFG Research. “Central banks grapple with the return of stagflation risks.” March 11, 2026.
[4] Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Consumer Price Index, February 2026.” March 11, 2026.
[5] Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, January 2026.” March 13, 2026.
[6] Institute for Supply Management. “February 2026 ISM® Services PMI® Report.” March 2026.
[7] StreetStats. “U.S. Treasury Yield Curve.” March 12, 2026.
[8] Reuters. “Dollar on track for second weekly rise; euro, yen at multi-month lows.” March 13, 2026.
[9] Reuters. “Wall St ends sharply lower as Iran war intensifies, crude price soars.” March 12, 2026.
[10] Chatham House. “US energy prices were set to rise long before the Iran war.” March 11, 2026.
[11] Yahoo Finance. “Gold price today, Friday, March 13: Gold opens lower with pressure from a stronger US dollar.” March 13, 2026.
[12] Investing.com. “Gold prices rise but head for second weekly loss as Iran war spurs inflation fears.” March 13, 2026.
[13] Crux Investor. “Geopolitical Risk & Monetary Expectations Drive Gold’s Longest Rally Since 1973.” March 13, 2026.
[14] Manhattan Gold & Silver. “Current Precious Metals Prices.” March 13, 2026.
[15] Trading Economics. “Palladium.” March 13, 2026.
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© 2026 WiseGold Capital. All rights reserved. This publication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. WiseGold Capital is a consulting and logistics firm, not an asset manager or financial advisor.